Impact of climate change on monthly streamflow in the Verde River Basin using two hydrological models

This study assessed the impact of climate change on monthly streamflow in Verde River Basin, located Grande Basin headwater. For this purpose, SWAT and VIC hydrological models were used to simulate under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios, obtained by Regional Climate Models Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-CanESM2 Eta-MIROC5 baseline period (1961-2005) three time-slice (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) inputs. At end century, Eta-HadGEM2-ES showed larger decrease precipitation both radiative with an annual reduction 17.4 (RCP4.5) 32.3% (RCP8.5), while indicated major warming, increase 4.7 10.2°C RCP8.5, respectively. As well as changes, also greater impacts for first (2011-2040), 58.0% models, scenario century (2071-2099), 54.0 (VIC model) 56.8% (SWAT model). Regarding streamflow, inputs varying from 7.2 66.3 % 37.0 64.7% In general, presented opposite terms direction simulations at century. Combined effects model structures scenarios should be considered assessments uncertainties impacts.